Week 14 WORST Voter -- Jon Wilner (again), San Jose Mercury News  (posted 11/28/07)

Jon Wilner becomes our first, third-time recipient of Worst Voter of the Week.  With only a few poll weeks left, Wilner has put himself in prime position for Worst Voter of the Year, 2007.  However, in a season of upsets, anything is still possible.  Once again, Wilner received the most votes this week.  The reasons are similar to his week 13 performance, so we'll try to be brief.  Check his week 14 ballot for all of the details.  Highlights are below, but you can see Wilner's reasoning in his own words here:  My AP Poll.

1)  Last week, Wilner had 16 teams where he was either the most extreme vote or within 10% of the extreme.  That was a Pollspeak record and we hope it stands for a long time.  His 13 near-extreme votes this week pales by comparison, but it is still this week's highest total (along with Molly Yanity): 

• Georgia -- highest #2 (alone)
• West Virginia -- lowest #3 (5 agree)
• Boston College -- #9 (2 higher)
• Tennessee -- #10 highest ( 1 agree)
• Ohio State -- lowest #11 (alone)
• Cincinnati -- highest #12 (alone)
• Clemson -- #13 (1 agree, 1 higher)
• Auburn -- #15 (3 higher)
• Kansas -- lowest #17 (alone)
• Texas Tech -- #19 (4 higher)
• Hawaii -- #20 lowest (1 agree)
• Texas -- #24 (3 agree, 1 lower)
• Wisconsin -- lowest, unranked (6 agree)

That's 8 votes on the extreme (which is tops this week) and 5 more within 10% for a total of 13 votes near the edge.  Once again, there is nothing wrong with many of these picks individually.  It is just when you take them as a whole that a concern is raised. 

2)  Ranking Ohio State #11 and Kansas #17, which are both lowest in the country, (and he is alone on these) deserves its own category and is likely why he received the most votes this week.

3)  While not alone on the following choices, Wilner makes some questionable judgments on these teams' ranking in relation to each other:
Auburn over USF -- even though USF has a better record and beat Auburn.  Five of the six computers also rank USF better than Auburn.
Virginia Tech over Boston College -- they have the same records, but BC won the head-to-head.

Virginia Tech over LSU -- again same records, but LSU dominated.
USC over Ohio State -- while these two didn't play each other, this truly is an odd choice, which is easy to see...not a single computer agrees with him.

There are other items that could be pointed out, but these are the highlights.  We'll let you discuss the rest on our FORUMS.

Week 14 DIS-honorable Mention(s) -- Scott Wolf, Molly Yanity, Austin Ward, Neal McCready, Adam Van Brimmer, Anthony SanFilippo, Doug Doughty, Glenn Guilbeau, Bret Bloomquist and Craig James (posted 11/28/07)

As the end of the 2007 football season draws near, people have noted that the candidate pool for Worst Voter of the Week seems to be consistent.  So we decided to do some research and see if there was a common thread amongst them.  We found a significant one:  every Worst Voter (and some DIS-honorable mentions) had at least 9 near-extreme votes.  We only started paying close attention to near-extreme votes in week 13, so they weren't really a consideration in our choices before then.  To clarify, a "near-extreme" vote is when 10% or less of the voters either agree or are higher/lower on a particular vote.  In the case of the AP Poll, 10% means 7 votes.  For example, this week Jon Wilner voted Tennessee #10, which was the highest.  This is "on the extreme."  He also voted Clemson #13, but 1 person voted higher (and only 1 agreed with him)...this is "near the extreme."  If 3 people agreed and 4 people were higher...that would also be near the extreme. 

So every Worst Voter of the Week followed this trend of 9 near-extreme votes or more.  In fact, Craig James in week 7 and Jon Wilner in week 10 each had 15 votes near the extreme, and there was no mention of it.  (FYI, when looking for near-extremes, you also have to include teams that voters DIDN'T rank, as long as 7 or less people also didn't rank them.)
We'll reiterate that the number of near-extreme votes should not be and was not the only consideration for the Worst Voter of the Week.  However, it is interesting that they all have this in common.  What usually sets the Worst apart is the number of votes they have ON the extreme, as well as placement of teams in relation to each other.

But for this week's DIS-Honorable mention, we thought we would try an exercise.  If 9 is the magic number of near-extremes for Worst Voters, let's choose 8 for this week's DIS-honorable mentions and see who qualifies.  Here is the list, ranked from most to least:

• Molly Yanity, Seattle Post Intelligencer -- has 13 near-extreme votes, tying Jon Wilner.  However, Wilner has 8 on the extreme, where Yanity only has 6.  Yanity repeats her DIS-honorable mention from last week.
• Anthony SanFilippo, Delaware County Daily Times -- 11 near-extremes in total, but flying under the radar with 4 votes on the extreme.
• Adam Van Brimmer, Savannah Morning News -- 10 near-extremes and 3 on the extreme.  Our week 9 Worst Voter of the Week has been close a couple more times, but this is first official re-appearance near the top.
• Austin Ward, Casper Star-Tribune -- Our week 10 DIS-honorable Mention.  This week he has 9 near-extremes and 2 on the extreme.
• Glenn Guilbeau, Gannett Louisiana News Service -- 9 near the extreme and 6 on the extreme.  Guilbeau hasn't had much impact on Pollspeak so far, but we'll be keeping an eye out from now on.
• Doug Doughty, Roanoke Times -- 9 near -extremes and 6 on the extreme.  Doughty is also a newcomer to the Pollspeak radar.
• Neal McCready, Mobile Press-Register -- 9 near-extremes and 5 on the extreme.  This is McCready's first time as a DIS-honorable mention, but he has been on the cusp a few times and is a regular in the Quick Hits section.
• Bret Bloomquist, El Paso Times -- A past Good Voter of the Week.  Bloomquist has 9 near-extremes this week and 3 on the extreme.  Of course back in Week 9 he only had 7 near the extreme and 1 on the extreme. Even though he didn't have enough near-extremes back then to fall in with this group, 7 is still a high amount.  Which also, goes to show that you shouldn't judge by near-extremes alone (except when making a point about near-extremes).
• Scott Wolf, Los Angeles Daily News -- a regular on Pollspeak and two-time Worst Voter of the Week.  Wolf has 9 near the extreme, but only 2 on the extreme.  This is a relatively tame ballot based on Wolf's prior weeks.
• Craig James, ABC/ESPN -- 8 near-extremes and 3 on the extreme.  It seems James is the only one included this week by lowering near-extremes from 9 to 8.  And James has done a good job of staying off the radar since his back-to-back Worst Voter wins in weeks seven and eight.  However, it completes our collection of Worst Voters of the Week.  Every one of them is still included in this list (if you add Wilner, of course), which we think is a telling sign.

There are other items that could be pointed out, but these are the highlights.  We'll let you discuss the rest on our FORUMS.

Computer Round-Up  (posted 11/28/07)

Computer Round-Up is a quick look at the computer polls; particularly where they disagree with the human polls or with each other.

1)  The big news this week is:  Who is #1?  Last week, three teams had #1 rankings.  Sagarin ranked Kansas #1.  Billingsley ranked Ohio State #1.  The rest all ranked LSU #1.  This week, none of those teams are ranked #1.  Of course LSU and Kansas' #1 rankings were lost along with their games last week, but even idle Ohio State dropped to #2 in Billingsley.  In their places, are now West Virginia and Missouri, and the opinions are definitely split:

• West Virginia is #1 in -- Coaches' Poll, Colley, Sagarin, and Billingsley.
• Missouri is #1 in -- AP Poll, Harris Poll, Wolfe, Massey, and Anderson Hester.

2)  Arkansas is creating similar rifts between the polls.  After their upset of #1 LSU, the 8-4 Razorbacks only made the top 25 in the Coaches' Poll (#25), Sagarin (#21) and Billingsley (#18).  The other two human and four computer polls range from #26 - #31.

3)  Notre Dame beat Stanford last weekend and continued its climb up the computer rankings.  Billingsley is still highest at #63, Colley is now lowest at #91 and the rest of the computers rank the Fighting Irish in the 80's.  Sagarin and Massey rank the Irish #88, which ironically was the year of their last national championship (1988).  Also painfully ironic, The Cardinal is still ranked above the Irish in 4 of the 6 computer polls.

4)  After Hawaii's biggest win of the year over Boise State and winning the WAC Championship, you would expect significant improvement in their standings....and there was.  Hawaii jumped from #15 to #12 in the BCS standings.  This might not be as big a jump as Warrior fans were hoping for, though.  The human polls continue to respect the Warriors – ranking them #10 in the Coaches’ and Harris Interactive polls (#11 in the AP).  They even picked up one first place vote in Harris.  However, the computers are still lower, which dragged them down to #12 overall.  This week, all computers rank the Warriors in the top 25, which is a first:  Billingsley #10, Wolf #14, Massey #16, Anderson Hester #17, Colley and Sagarin #18.

5) Boise State took a pounding in the computers after the Hawaii loss.  Broncos fans can thank Billingsley for its #15 ranking, almost single-handedly keeping them in the BCS top 25.  Otherwise, the other computers would have pushed them out.  Anderson Hester (#38) and Massey (#46) were the lowest.

6)  South Florida has climbed to #21 in the BCS standings, yet they still aren't ranked in the Coaches' Poll (and are only #25 in the Harris and AP Polls).  So the computers still like the Bulls a lot more than the voters do.  Five of the six computers rank them in the top 20.  Sagarin is highest at #13 and Billingsley is still lowest at #30. The rest rank them between #14 and #16.  South Florida represents one of the biggest gaps between human and computer thinking (especially if you remove the extremes).

7) The computers typically like Oregon better than the voters.  Humans average for Oregon = #19.  Computers average for Oregon = #16 (rounded).  We can only guess, but the difference likely has something to do with the voters knowing that star QB, Dennis Dixon, is done for the year.  That's not always the case since Billingsley ranks them a relatively low #21.  Regardless, we're confident that the Billingsley formula doesn't have a Dennis Dixon component.

8)  Texas Tech's stay in the Coaches' Poll was short lived.  They dropped out after one week even though they were idle.  Once the fervor of the Oklahoma upset died down, maybe some coaches thought they were too quick to rank them.  One thing is certain, it shows the "what have you done for me lately" attitude often displayed in the human polls.  As for the computers, the Red Raiders didn't break into the top 25 in any poll, but they did actually gain a couple of spots on the whole.

9)  1AA, 12-0, Northern Iowa is now up to #22 in the Massey Ratings.  However, AP voter Ray Ratto rethought his #25 ranking of the Panthers last week; so now Massey is the only entity (with a vote) to recognize Northern Iowa as a top-25 BCS team.

10)  Texas is the only top 25 team ranked lower by EVERY computer than the lowest human poll.  In short, the computers don't like Texas as much as the voters do.  Even perennial computer punching bag, Hawaii, doesn't have this problem.   Theories about what the voters see in the Longhorns that the computers don't are welcome on the Pollspeak forums.

There are other items that could be pointed out, but these are the highlights.  We'll let you discuss the rest on our FORUMS.

Quick Hits From Around the Country (posted 11/29/07)

Ray Ratto, San Francisco Chronicle -- came close to our DIS-honorable Mention list with seven votes near the extreme.  However, he only has one vote on the extreme:  Troy at #24, which is the highest of Troy's two votes this week.

Glenn Guilbeau, Gannett Louisiana News Service -- as part of his nine near-extreme votes, he was the only one to leave Clemson unranked.  He replaced them with Kentucky.  Guilbeau was one of only four voters to rank Kentucky, and he ranked them highest at #21.  He also had the largest differential between Boston College and Virginia Tech.  Even though they have the same records and BC won, he has the Hokies a whopping 18 spots over the Eagles.

Dave Goren, WXII-TV -- has six near the edge, but more notably has LSU highest at #3, Michigan highest at #22 and Texas lowest at #25.

Chris Fowler, ESPN -- has USC highest at #3.

Barker Davis, Washington Times -- gives Wake Forest (#25) its only vote.

Kirk Herbstreit, ESPN -- gives Tulsa (#25) its only vote.  To make room, he was one of nine to leave Oregon unranked.

Chip Cosby, Lexington Herald-Leader -- gives Penn State (#25) its only vote in place of Virginia.  He was only one of six to leave the Cavaliers off his ballot.

John Hunt, The Oregonian -- was the only voter to leave off Tennessee.  He replaced them with Oregon State (#24), and was one of only two voters to rank the Beavers.  (Craig James was the only one to rank them higher.)

Craig James, ABC/ESPN -- in addition to his 8 extremes, he also has the biggest gap between Virginia Tech and LSU.  Even though both teams have the same record and LSU dominated the head-to-head match-up, he has Virginia Tech seven spots higher than LSU.  So it is no surprise that as part of his extreme votes, he has the Hokies highest and the Tigers lowest of all voters.

GOOD Voter of Week 14 -- Matt McCoy, WTVN-AM Radio (posted 11/29/07)

Matt McCoy is this week's Good Voter of the Week for two main reasons...and both prove a point:

1)  He has a low number of extremes.  He only has two on the extreme:

• Virginia Tech -- lowest, #11 (3 agree)
• BYU -- lowest, unranked (7 agree)

So once again, it is OK to have some extreme votes.  Pollspeak is not looking for zero extremes.

2) More importantly, he voted opposite of the Worst Voter of the Week, Jon Wilner, in the picks highlighted above.   Pollspeak will not make it a practice to measure levels of Wilnerism in voters, but generally the opposite of the Worst is Good:

• USF #20 over Auburn #21 -- USF has a better record and beat Auburn.
• Five of the six computers also rank USF better than Auburn.
• Boston College #10 over Virginia Tech #11 -- they have the same records, and BC won the head-to-head.
• LSU #7 over Virginia Tech #11 -- again same records, but LSU dominated.
• Ohio State #3 over USC #6 -- Every computer agrees with OSU over USC.

You can continue to make cases for Good Voters of the Week on our FORUMS.