Week 13 WORST Voter -- Jon Wilner, San Jose Mercury News  (posted 11/21/07)

Jon Wilner received the most votes this week, and Pollspeak agrees that he has bested his week 10 performance as Worst Voter of the Week.  He joins Craig James and Scott Wolf as the other voters to be named twice.  Last week he was our DIS-honorable mention due mostly to his uncanny number of votes near the edge.  With his week 13 ballot he has managed to top himself.  Details are below: 

1)  Wilner continues to show an SEC bias.  He is in the top 10% of voters for all ranked SEC teams:  LSU, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, and Auburn.  He did drop Kentucky from his ballot this week, however.

2)  Last week, Wilner had 13 teams where he was either the most extreme vote or within 10% of the extreme.  That was a record for as long as Pollspeak has been watching, and frankly...we thought it would be in the books for a while.  However, it took him just one week to break his own record: 

• Missouri -- #2 (6 agree, 1 higher)
• Georgia -- highest #3 (alone)
• Virginia Tech -- highest #5 (2 agree)
• Kansas -- lowest #6 (1 agree)
• Oklahoma -- #8 ( 3 agree, 1 higher)
• Florida -- #9 (4 agree, 3 higher)
• Ohio State -- lowest #11 (alone)
• Arizona State -- #12 (1 agree, 1 lower)
• Tennessee -- highest #13 (1 agree)
• Cincinnati -- highest #15 (alone)
• Texas -- #17 (1 agree, 1 lower)
• Auburn -- #18 (1 agree, 2 higher)
• Texas Tech -- #20 (1 agree, 1 higher)
• Virginia -- lowest #22 (1 agree)
• Hawaii -- #23 (1 agree, 1 lower)
• Florida State -- #25 (2 higher)

That's 7 votes on the extreme and 9 more within 10% for a total of 16 votes near the edge.  Keep in mind that you only get 25 votes.  Once again, there is nothing wrong with many of these picks individually.  It is just when you take the sheer number of extreme picks into account that a concern is raised. 

3)  Wilner was also the only AP Voter to rank USC over Ohio State.  Of course, Ohio State only has one loss to USC's two.  They also have one common opponent, Washington, which USC won 27 - 24 and Ohio State won 33-14.  Of the computers that report strength of schedule, most (except Colley) think USC has a slightly stronger SOS, but none of them rank the Trojans over the Buckeyes.  You can see Wilner's reasoning in his own words here:  My AP Poll.

There are other items that could be pointed out, but these are the highlights.  We'll let you discuss the rest on our FORUMS.

Week 13 DIS-honorable Mention -- Molly Yanity, Seattle Post-Intelligencer (posted 11/21/07)

This is Molly Yanity's first visit near the top of Pollspeak's list.  In fact, she has only had one minor cameo in the Quick Hits section of week 9, so her week 13 ballot was a radical departure.  Yanity lists her own AP Ballot on-line, but doesn't explain her choices.  Here are the highlights:

1)  Yanity actually has more votes right on the extreme than Wilner does.  She has 8.  However, she only has 4 others near the extreme for a total of 12.  This is still exceptionally high and hard to do without trying:

West Virginia -- #2 (5 agree, 1 higher)

Arizona State -- highest #4 (2 agree)

Missouri -- lowest #5 (5 agree)

Boston College -- highest #9 (alone)

Georgia -- lowest #11 (2 agree)

Oklahoma -- #13 (4 agree, 2 lower)

Clemson -- highest #16 (alone)

Florida -- #17 (2 agree, 1 lower)

Kentucky -- highest #20 (1 agree)

Arkansas -- highest #22 (1 agree)

Auburn -- #20 (3 agree, 1 higher)

Illinois -- #23 (1 lower -- reportedly by mistake.  See Quick Hits section below)

UCF -- highest #25 (1 agree)

We can't emphasize enough that there is nothing wrong with many of these picks individually.  It is the volume of them in this case that concerns Pollspeak.

2) Placing Texas over Oklahoma is a strange choice since they have the same record, and the Sooners beat the Longhorns head-to-head.  See (mythical) rule #1.  However five other voters did the same thing.

3) In the same manner, she also places USC over Oregon.  However, with the loss of Oregon's QB, Dennis Dixon, for the season, she may be thinking that the Ducks are no longer the same team.  This may certainly be the case and is a prime example of why rule #1 is a rule of thumb and not a law.

There are other items that could be pointed out, but these are the highlights.  We'll let you discuss the rest on our FORUMS.

Computer Round-Up  (posted 11/21/07)

Computer Round-Up is a quick look at the computer polls; particularly where they disagree with the human polls or with each other.

1)  Sagarin is the only poll (human or computer) to rank Kansas #1.  Billingsley is the only one to rank Ohio State #1.  The rest all rank LSU #1.

2)  Notre Dame beat Duke this weekend, which helped the Fighting Irish’s standing in the computer polls significantly.  They jumped a total of 26 spots in the six computer polls combined.   Why mention the Notre Dame – Duke game?  Because last week, Duke was actually above Notre Dame in a poll (Colley Matrix), which probably hasn’t happened since…well, before there were home computers anyway.  So now the Irish are firmly above the Blue Devils, but they are still behind some surprising teams this week:

• Billingsley: #65 – just behind Colorado (#64).  This is Notre Dame’s highest ranking and least surprising result.  Keep in mind that Billingsley doesn’t rank 1AA teams.
• Anderson Hester: #96 – below LA Monroe (fresh off their upset of Alabama) and Iowa State.  Anderson Hester also doesn’t rank 1AA teams.
• Colley:  #97 – just under Buffalo (Duke dropped to # 109)
• Sagarin: #99  – just under 1AA Villanova
• Massey: #100 – below IAA Delaware & James Madison plus LA Monroe.
• Wolfe: #106 – Notre Dame ranks below 9 IAA teams.  However, to be fair, so do Western Michigan and Syracuse who are ranked just above the Irish.

3)  There is more positive movement in this week's Hawaii watch.  The human polls have always respected the Warriors – ranking them #13 in the Coaches’ and Harris Interactive polls this week (#14 in the AP).  However, they went most of the season without any computer respect.  This week, four computers rank them in the top 25:  Wolf (#17), Billingsley (#19), Colley (#23) and Anderson Hester (#24).  Massey, who had consistently been the worst, checks in at #31 and Sagarin now brings up the rear at #32.  While not giving the same level of respect as the voters, this is a huge improvement for the computers. Ironically, Hawaii’s biggest champion all year, Wolfe, actually dropped the Warriors from #12 last week to #17 this week.

4)  South Florida is #23 in the BCS standings, yet they didn’t make the top 25 in any of human polls.  So you know the computers have to like the Bulls.  Five of the six computers rank them in the top 25.  Colley and Sagarin are highest at #13.  Wolf, Massey and Anderson Hester all agree at #19, and Billingsley is lowest at #30. 

5)  The Coaches’ Poll had one obvious anomaly – Texas Tech at #24.  The Red Raiders didn’t crack the top 25 in the other two human polls or ANY of the computer polls:

• Sagarin:  #27
• Billingsley:  #38
• Wolf:  #42
• Anderson:  #44
• Massey:  #45
• Colley:  #46

Texas Tech had zero votes in all three human polls the previous week.  This just shows the effect an emotional victory by a huge underdog can have on voters.

7)  Speaking of huge underdogs, our final observation comes from the Massey Ratings and the AP Poll.  Ray Ratto of the San Francisco Chronicle is the only voter in any of the three polls to give Northern Iowa a vote (#25 on his ballot).  Crazy?  Maybe, but Massey actually ranks the IAA, 11-0 Panthers #24.  So Ratto is not completely alone (although he’s close).  After the Appalachian State victory over Michigan, it became “legal” to vote for 1AA teams.  In what has turned out to be the craziest year in modern college football, it would be a shame not to take advantage of this crazy rule.

There are other items that could be pointed out, but these are the highlights.  We'll let you discuss the rest on our FORUMS.

Quick Hits From Around the Country (posted 11/22/07)

Kansas' #1 votes:  3 in the AP Poll, 8 in the Coaches' Poll and 13 in the Harris Interactive Poll.

Scott Wolf, Los Angeles Daily News -- although Wolf was our Worst Voter of the Week for the last two weeks, his ballot this week was relatively tame.  He still has Texas highest in the nation at #4 and Kansas lowest (with Wilner) at #6, but we've already beaten that issue to death over the last two weeks.  He also has Florida highest at #7, Kentucky highest at #20 (with Yanity) and only one person has Ohio State lower than his #9 -- this week's Worst Voter, Jon Wilner.

Rich Kaipust, Omaha World-Record -- still has the only #1 vote for West Virginia.  He also has Georgia lowest at #11, USF highest at #18 and Virginia lowest at #22.

Kirk Herbstreit, ESPN -- is the only voter to leave Connecticut off of his ballot.  He voted Texas Tech highest at #17, USC highest at #7, and only one person voted lower than him on Boise State and Hawaii.

Adam Van Brimmer, Savannah Morning News -- was one of five voters to leave Clemson off his ballot.  He also voted BYU highest at #16, Virginia Tech lowest at 15, and Missouri lowest at #5.

Dave Morrison, Register Herald -- gives Penn State their only vote (#22) and Oklahoma its lowest at #14.

Austin Ward, Casper Star-Tribune -- gave Arizona State its highest vote of #4 and USC its lowest of #16.  We're guessing he also picked the Sun Devils to beat the Trojans on Thursday.

Doug Doughty, Roanoke Times -- gave Ohio State its highest vote of #2.

Mike DeArmond, Kansas City Star -- is the only voter to rank Missouri #1 (and LSU lowest at #3).  There is a slight possibility of home-town bias here.

Myron Patton, KOKH-TV -- gave Tulsa its only vote (#25).

Ray Ratto, San Francisco Chronicle -- as mentioned in the Computer Round-Up section above, he is the only voter to rank Northern Iowa (#25); however, we'll also mention that it was at the expense of Tennessee.  He was the only voter to leave the Volunteers off the ballot.

Israel Gutierrez, Miami Herald -- is the only voter to rank California...and quite high at #20.  He is also the only voter to leave Illinois off his ballot.  In fact, he received the second most votes this week...mainly from angry Illini.  Pollspeak contacted him, and here is Gutierrez's response: 

"It's fairly simple. While going through my weekly process of maneuvering teams and adjusting positions, I accidentally placed California in the slot I intended to place Illinois.  I thought I double-checked the poll before I sent it, but must have just overlooked the error. I didn't notice the mistake until Sunday night and was informed the mistake couldn't be corrected, so I'll have to make sure not to make any errors in this week's poll.  That's just so everyone knows that just because I live and work in Florida doesn't mean I'm anti-Ron Zook.  Thanks, Israel Gutierrez"

GOOD Voter of Week 13 -- Pete DiPrimio, Fort Wayne News - Sentinel (posted 11/22/07)

There are usually many "good" voters each week, and this week is no exception.  Sometimes Pollspeak chooses one that best demonstrates a point.  This week we chose Pete DiPrimio partly because his week 13 ballot is the polar opposite of our "bad" voters this week.  DiPrimio has zero extreme votes and zero votes within 10% of the extreme.  However, our point is not to say that a ballot should have zero extreme votes.  We are just highlighting what such a ballot looks like.  We are not implying that all ballots should conform or be average.  That's not realistically possible or desirable.  Nor does this week's theme imply that extreme votes are the only reason to be concerned with a ballot.  Just look at DiPrimio's ballot as an example of how AP voters are generally thinking. 

For example, DiPrimio has Kansas #2, which is where most voters rank them...at least until the showdown with his #4 Missouri this weekend.  A good case could also be made for ranking Kansas #1 or #3 (or lower) last week.  The Jayhawk's #2 ranking is not better just because it is more popular.  However, unbiased and consistent voting is definitely a trait Pollspeak looks for in good voters.

On that note, we also selected DiPrimio for his good use of rule #1.  When records are the same, he typically puts the winners of head-to-head match-ups over the losers:

• Illinois #16 over Wisconsin #20
• Cincinnati #23 over USF #24
• Virginia #14 over Connecticut #21
• Florida #13 over Tennessee #18
• Oklahoma #10 over Texas #11
• Oregon #8 over USC #12

His biggest exception is ranking Virginia Tech (#7) significantly higher than Boston College (#17).  However, there are only four voters who did the opposite, and if DiPrimio followed suit, he would probably have one or two votes on or near the extreme.   As we said, there is no perfection in the polls, and this paradox is yet another example.  All Pollspeak asks of voters is to take their job seriously, put time into it, and at least try to make sense of it all.  If Pollspeak can do it, so can you.

You can continue to make cases for Good Voters of the Week on our FORUMS.