Week 10 WORST Voter -- Jon Wilner, San Jose Mercury News  (posted 10/31/07)

Jon Wilner is this week's top vote-getter on Pollspeak, which was a deciding factor over runner up, Austin Ward.  Wilner has a column explaining his AP Ballot.  He seems to put a lot of thought into it, even considering home vs. away games.  However, that didn't stop people from disagreeing with him.  Here are the highlights from his week 10 ballot:

1)  Wilner seems to have upset the most Buckeye fans.  His #5 ranking for Ohio State is the lowest.  He also ranks Arizona State #10, which is the second lowest.  (Last week's DIS-honorable Mention, Scott Wolf, is the only voter to rank them lower at #11.)  However, Wilner's differential between the two teams (5) is actually pretty average.  He explains his reasoning in his column. 

2)  In place of the typical undefeated teams, Wilner places once-beaten LSU and Oregon in the #1 and #2 spots.  Two others agree with him on LSU and four others agree with Oregon.

3)  His other votes on the edge include:  Georgia -- with its highest ranking of #8, West Virginia -- with its lowest ranking of #9 (four others agree), and Florida -- with its highest ranking of #11 (two others agree).  Pollspeak isn't making judgments about the quality of these picks.  Although the quantity of his extreme picks is a concern.

4)  SEC bias?  Wilner is in the top 10% of rankings for nearly all SEC teams:  LSU, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, Tennessee and Kentucky.  Alabama (#16) is the only one where he is at least a bit closer to the consensus.

5)  We'll consider breaking Rule #1 a minor infraction at this point since it is both controversial, and it is getting harder to track as the season goes on.  Still, Wilner ranked South Carolina over Tennessee, and Florida over Auburn even though those teams have the same number of losses (3).  He also ranked South Florida (#14) significantly over Connecticut (#23) even though UConn only has one loss to USF's two, and UConn won the head-to-head. 

There are other items that could be pointed out, but these are the highlights.  We'll let you discuss the rest on our FORUMS.

Week 10 DIS-honorable Mention -- Austin Ward, Casper Star-Tribune (posted 10/31/07)

Like Wilner, Ward publishes an article about his AP Ballot.  Of course, it's written for entertainment as well as education, but it does give you some insight into what he was thinking.  Read his article HERE.  Highlights from his week 10 Ballot include:

1)  Ward ranks New Mexico.  He is the only voter to rank them at all, and he checks them in at #22.  No computer has them ranked near the top 25 and the computers that rank schedules place New Mexico's between 82 and 101.  6-2 New Mexico did beat respectable Air Force and Wyoming teams, but nothing about New Mexico screams top 25 yet, and unfortunately for them, their schedule doesn't include any more top 25 teams to help their cause.

2)  Probably not a coincidence, but one of New Mexico's losses came from BYU, whom Ward also ranks.  Five voters did rank BYU, but Ward gives them their highest ranking at #17.   Again, 5-2 BYU is lacking what most voters would consider a signature win to be ranked so high at #17.  Of course, for Ward, that signature win could be New Mexico.

3)  By adding two less-popular teams to his ballots, something had to give.  In this case, Ward is the only voter to leave 6-2 USC off of his ballot completely.  He is also one of seven voters to leave USF off his ballot.

4)  Ward gives West Virginia its lowest ranking at #9 (tied with four others), Texas its lowest ranking at #25 (tied with one other), Alabama its highest ranking at #11 (tied with one other), and is one of only two people to rank Arizona State #1.  None of these alone is cause for concern, but in total, seven extreme votes are...well...extreme.

5)  As with Wilner, we'll consider breaking Rule #1 a minor infraction at this point.  Ward ranked Florida over Auburn, and Tennessee over Cal (as most did) even though all teams have the same number of losses (3).  He also ranked Auburn over USF even though USF only has two losses and won the head-to-head.  As mentioned, he has USF unranked.

There are other items that could be pointed out, but these are the highlights.  We'll let you discuss the rest on our FORUMS.

Computer Round-Up  (posted 10/31/07)

Computer Round-Up is a quick look at the computer polls; particularly where they disagree with the human polls or with each other.

1)  The computers generally like South Florida. The human polls rank USF -- Harris = #20, AP = #20, Coaches' = #21.  Two of the computer polls (Sagarin & Massey) have USF in the top 10.  Colley has them ranked #11, Wolfe #12 and Anderson Hester #14.  The lowest ranking is Billingsley at #19.

2)  The computers generally don't like Wisconsin.  The human polls rank the Badgers -- Harris = #21, AP = #26, Coaches' = #19.  However no computer ranks them in the top 25 --  Colley = unranked, Sagarin = #47, Wolfe = #41, Massey = #42, Anderson Hester #30.  Billingsley comes closest with a #26 ranking that matches the AP Poll.

3)  The Hawaii watch remains the same.  Only one computer thinks Hawaii is a top 25 team.  Wolfe still rates them best at #14.  The next best ranking is Anderson Hester at #33.  Colley has them unranked, and Massey has them at #55.  Two overtime wins and one of the weakest schedules in the country is the reason for the lack of digital respect.

4) Clemson and Wake Forest are fighting for ACC mindshare with the pollsters.  Both are ranked in the top 25 by every computer except one (Anderson Hester has Clemson #27 as the only exception), but the AP is the only human poll to rank both.  The Coaches like Clemson while Harris voters like Wake. 

5) Sagarin now ranks Kansas as the #1 team.  It also dislikes Boston College the most (#7).  The other computers have BC ranked either #1 or #2.  The other computers have Kansas ranked mostly #4 or #6, with Billingsly the lowest at #8.

6) The computers and pollsters generally agree that Michigan falls in the #14 - #20 range.  However, Billingsley loves the Wolverines and ranks them #7.  (Note:  this is likely due to Billingsley not including IAA teams in its ratings.)

There are other items that could be pointed out, but these are the highlights.  We'll let you discuss the rest on our FORUMS.

Quick Hits From Around the Country (posted 10/31/07)

The whole ESPN crew (Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit and Craig James) -- have Boston College ranked lowest in the country.  Fowler and Herbstreit are two of the five who ranked BC lowest at #6 and James is tied with four others who rank BC #5.

Adam Van Brimmer, Savannah Morning News -- still has Hawaii (#8), Troy (#20) and Boise State (#11)ranked highest in the country.  He also has BYU ranked second highest (#19) only behind Austin Ward above.  See last week's Worst Voter of the Week section for more info on Brimmer.  He is only one of two people not to rank Virginia Tech (along with Alex Abrams) He will continue to stay on Pollspeak's radar.

Scott Wolf, Los Angeles Daily News -- may be another perennial voter on the list.  See last week's DIS-honorable Mention section for more info on Wolf.  He still has Arizona State lowest of any ballot (#11) as well as the largest differential between Ohio State (#1) and Arizona State.  He also has Kentucky (#15), Texas (#8) and Oklahoma (#3) ranked highest.  Although nine others agree about he Sooners.

Rich Kaipust, Omaha World-Herald -- is the only voter to do it twice in one week.  That is ranking a winning team behind the loser of a head-to-head match-up, when the loser has a WORSE record.  He has Rutgers over Cincinnati, and South Florida over Connecticut.  He is actually the only voter to rank Rutgers (#25).  He also gives West Virginia their highest ranking (#2).

Neal McCready, Mobile Press-Register -- Big 10 bias?  McCready gave the highest rankings to both Purdue (#18) and Illinois (#23).  Only one voter ranked Wisconsin (#16) higher than him, and only two voters ranked Michigan (#11) higher than him (however, 8 voters agreed).

John Moredich, Tucson (AZ) Citizen -- gives Clemson (#14) its highest ranking.  He even went so far as to rank them higher than Virginia Tech (#16), who has the same record and beat Clemson soundly in the head-to-head match-up.

Kirk Herbstreit, WBNS-AM Columbus (ESPN) -- in addition to his BC ranking, he is the only voter to put Oklahoma State (#21) on his ballot.  He ranks them over Texas A&M and Troy...two teams with better records, but who beat Oklahoma State in head to head match-ups. He also gives Auburn their highest ranking (#10) and puts them well ahead of South Florida (#22), who once again has a better record and beat Auburn.

Glenn Guilbeau, Gannett Louisiana -- gives California (#13) and Virginia Tech (#6) their highest rankings.  He also gives Oklahoma (#8) its lowest ranking (2 others agreed).

Mike Prater, Idaho Statesman -- gives USC its highest ranking (#8) and Kansas its lowest (#11).  Because of this he also has the largest differential between Ohio State and Kansas (10)...two undefeated teams with similar strength of schedule. (Ohio State does have stronger SOS according to the computers...but they are not far enough apart to warrant the 10 ranking difference.)

Tommy Trujillo, The New Mexican -- gave Boston College its lone #1 vote.

Tom Keegan, Lawrence Journal World -- is the only voter to rank UCLA, and he ranked them an impressive #15.  He also ranked USC second-highest (#10).  One thing is for sure, Keegan loves L.A.

Mike DeArmond, Kansas City Star -- Ranks Missouri highest at #6, while ranking LSU (#7) and West Virginia (#9 along with four others) their lowest.
LSU lost its only two #1 votes in the Harris Interactive poll and also lost two in the AP poll (leaving three #1 votes there).  Oregon is the only other one-loss team to receive a #1 vote.  They received a #1 vote in the Coaches' poll.

There are other items that could be pointed out, but these are the highlights.  We'll let you discuss the rest on our FORUMS.

GOOD Voter of Week 10 -- Kirk Bohls, Austin American Statesman (posted 10/31/07)

Kirk Bohls is the latest Good Voter of the Week.  First, he shows little bias between the four undefeated teams (with similar schedules):

• Ohio State = #1
• Boston College= #2
•  Arizona State = #6
•  Kansas = #7

It isn't the highest & tightest grouping (that honor goes to Bret Bloomquist), but it is certainly within a reasonable range.

The main reason we singled Bohls out; however, is that he really put a lot of thought into sorting out the convoluted SEC.  He is one of the very few who made all of these choices:

•  Georgia = #13, Alabama = #16
•  Tennessee = #19, South Carolina = #23
•  South Carolina = #23, Kentucky = #24
•  Auburn = #12, Florida = #18
•  Florida - #18, Tennessee = #19
•  Florida = #18, Kentucky = #24

Alabama and Georgia have two losses and are ranked highest (with Georgia on top since they won the head-to-head).  All the rest have three losses and are ranked with the winner of the head-to-head match-up ranked ahead of the loser.  This is no easy feat with so many combinations.

His ballot isn't "perfect" (if there were such a thing).  Michigan's rivals might complain they are too high.  Oklahoma fans will complain they are too low.  USF and Cal fans will complain that they should be over teams they beat.  However, Bohls is being rewarded for really taking into account how the actual games played out a MAJORITY of the time and making major ballot changes when necessary.  This is not the norm for AP voters.

Discuss Good Voters of the Week on our FORUMS.