In 2012, the preseason polls once again come out in August -- August 2nd for the Coaches Poll and August 18th for the AP Poll. It’s the perfect time to release Pollspeak’s annual list of the most overrated and underrated teams over the last five years.
This list covers the AP Poll between 2007 and 2011. We have used the Coaches Poll in the past as well, but the results were very similar. Leave comments, send us an This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it , use the forum, tweet us or post on Facebook if you want to see similar lists for other polls, other years or longer periods.
If you are a fan of one of these teams, before you get too upset, keep in mind that this list is not so much a reflection of the teams as it is a reflection of the voters. The purpose of the list is to track voter bias over the last five years. For example, the fact that Cincinnati is underrated and Oklahoma is overrated during this period doesn’t mean that Cincinnati is a good team or that Oklahoma is a bad team or that either team is better than the other. It simply means that voters have misjudged both pretty consistently compared to other teams. Finally, keep in mind, this isn’t an opinion piece; this is just simple math. Our methodology is at the bottom of the list.
You can find the entire list of teams sorted from most overrated to most underrated here: THE OVERRATED – UNDERRATED LIST.
Without further ado, here are Pollspeak’s 2012 lists of…
Five Most Overrated Teams: 2007 - 2011
| Rank | Team | Points | # Years Overrated | # Years Underrated |
| 1) | Oklahoma | -38 | 3 | 1 |
| 2) |
Florida | -31 | 4 | 1 |
| 3) |
California | -28 | 2 | 0 |
| 4) | Florida State |
-24 | 3 | 2 |
| 5) | Nebraska | -22 | 3 | 1 |
Five Most Underrated Teams: 2007 - 2011
| Rank | Team | Points | # Years Underrated | # Years Overrated |
| 1) | Cincinnati | 37 | 4 | 0 |
| 2) | TCU | 30 | 3 | 1 |
| 3) | Oregon | 26 |
4 | 1 |
| 4) | Utah | 25 | 2 | 0 |
| 5) | Stanford | 22 | 1 | 0 |
You can find the entire list of teams sorted from most overrated to most underrated here: THE OVERRATED – UNDERRATED LIST.
Methodology
Pollspeak.com uses a simple method for determining overrating and underrating in the AP Poll.
An overrated team is one whose final poll ranking is worse than its preseason ranking. An underrated team is one whose final poll ranking is better than its preseason ranking. Different results could be obtained by tracking every week individually during the season. “Final poll” means the poll released after the bowl games.
The last five years for this list are the 2007 – 2011 seasons, inclusive.
We only counted teams listed in the top 25 during those years (65 teams tracked in total). When a team isn’t listed in the top 25, it is considered unranked and given a value of 26. We could have ranked teams further by counting all teams that received votes, and that certainly would have changed the results. For example, a team could have dropped to a theoretical No. 27 (receiving 50 votes), which would be better than a theoretical No. 49 (receiving one vote). However, for simplicity’s sake, anything beyond 25 is unranked. This also entirely weeds out teams typically considered unranked that qualify for the list by jumping from No. 49 to No. 26 (or vice-versa) in a given year.
Each team’s final ranking is subtracted from its preseason ranking to determine its over/under-rating for each year. Then all five years are added together to determine each team’s “Points” and place on the list. Ties are broken by taking into account the number of years being overrated vs. underrated.
Again, a more complex formula could be used and could certainly change the results, but we’re keeping it simple and straight-forward.
You can find the entire list of teams sorted from most overrated to most underrated here: THE OVERRATED – UNDERRATED LIST.
| 1. | Louisville |
| 2. | Michigan |
| 3. | Duke |
| 4. | Kansas |
| 4. | Indiana |
| 6. | Ohio State |
| 7. | Syracuse |
| 8. | Gonzaga |
| 9. | Miami (FL) |
| 10. | Florida |
| 11. | Michigan State |
| 12. | Wichita State |
| 13. | Georgetown |
| 13. | Marquette |
| 14. | Arizona |
| 15. | New Mexico |
| 16. | Creighton |
| 17. | Memphis |
| 17. | Oregon |
| 19. | Wisconsin |
| 20. | Kansas State |
| 21. | Va. Commonwealth |
| 22. | Pittsburgh |
| 23. | North Carolina |
| 24. | Butler |
| 25. | Oklahoma State |
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