Good and Bad Voters of "Week 1"

(Preseason) (posted 9/6/10)

John Werner of the Waco Tribune-Herald is the people's pick for preseason Good Voter (see his ballot link below).  In reality, he was far from the fan favorite.  He actually came in sixth place for the most "Good" votes with 53.  However, everybody ahead of him also received significant "Bad" votes, so Werner sneaks into first place in "Net Good Votes" to take the prize.  The people with more good votes (in ascending order) are:  Wade Denniston, Scott Wolf, Kirk Herbstreit, Mike DeArmond, and Joe Giglio.  Werner received only one bad vote (ranking nobody lowest) and just enough good votes, likely from Oregon and LSU fans.

Joe Giglio actually received the most Good votes (214).  Unfortunately he also received more than enough bad votes (601) to offset all of his good votes plus enough to give him the most Net Bad Votes.  Giglio's ballot (see link below) has plenty of color as Pollstalker's most extreme pick.  Giglio actually ranked eight teams highest in the nation while only rating three lowest.  However, those three (Texas, Florida and Virginia Tech) are obviously the loudest.  This is actually surprising since one of the teams ranked highest is Boise State (ranked No.1), and Bronco fans are historically very active voters.  Even they might have doubts about the No.1 ranking.  At least until they see what happens in the Virginia Tech game tonight.

PEOPLE'S PICK:  Good Voter of "Week 1" (Preseason):

PEOPLE'S PICK: Bad Voter of "Week 1" (Preseason):

AP Voter Removed (posted 8/28/10)

Tom Hart removed as AP Voter due to Big Ten relationship, and Pollspeak does its job as poll watchdog.  Read the full story on CBSSPORTS.COM by following the link.

As we also mentioned in our previous blog: “…this is the first time we know of where an AP Voter has a formal relationship with a specific conference. While there is no hint of Big Ten bias in his preseason ballot, it will be worth keeping an eye out for it as the season progresses.  In fact, he ranked incoming member Nebraska, lowest of any voter.”

Even though there was no bias in favor of the Big Ten in Hart’s ballot, to their credit, the AP responded swiftly and did the right thing by replacing Hart as a voter. The AP’s willingness to address even the potential for bias, once again, demonstrates why Pollspeak gives it their highest ranking.

When originally contacting the AP, we quoted their own rules against similar relationships:

· Voters should have no professional or booster connection to the schools they cover. This could pose a conflict of interest.

· Voters cannot write for team media guides or even independent fan magazines associated with certain schools. This has the potential of compromising a reporter's objectivity.

These rules show the intention of the AP to limit bias in the AP Poll, and even though there is no specific mention of “conference” affiliation, the intention is clear.

Hart’s preseason ballot will be his last for this season. He will be replaced in “week 2” (in the AP’s numbering system) by Dave Curtis of The Sporting News.

We'll post here, Facebook, RSS and tweet whenever a new blog goes up.

Pollspeak on CBS --

Inside the 2010 Preseason AP Poll (posted 8/22/10)

Pollspeak now has a featured blog and video weekly on CBSSports.com. Check out the latest:  INSIDE THE 2010 PRESEASON AP POLL, by clicking the link.

We'll post here, Facebook, RSS and tweet whenever a new blog goes up.

Inside the 2010 USA Today Coaches' Poll (posted 8/9/10)

The 2010 USA Today Preseason Coaches’ Poll was released on Friday, August 6^th. Here are some quick facts to mull over:

· The Big East earned some more respect this year. In 2009 they had a surprising ZERO teams ranked in the preseason poll. This year Pittsburgh checks in at No. 15 and West Virginia is tied with Utah for No. 24/25. 2009’s Big East champion, Cincinnati, sits just outside at No. 26.

· While many predicted Boise State might be ranked as high as No. 3, they debut at No. 5, which is still their highest-ever preseason ranking. On that note, week one’s Labor Day game features an incredible matchup between the Broncos and No. 6, Virginia Tech. This will be the best season opener since Baba Booey “threw” the first pitch.

· Boise State, who will be joining the Mountain West Conference, also joins TCU in the top ten. The Horned Frogs are ranked No. 7, which is their highest preseason ranking as well. The coaches are giving an unprecedented amount of respect to these historical red-headed step children.

· At No. 8, Oklahoma is the highest ranked team that was unranked to end the 2009 season. The coaches are obviously confident in Bob Stoops’ ability to right the ship after a disappointing 8-5 season. No doubt they feel numerous key injuries, particularly at QB, played a large part in the Sooner’s record.

· Florida State is the only six-loss team to make the poll at a generous No. 20. This likely says a lot about what other coaches think of the numerous coaching changes at FSU.

· On the other end of the “respectrum”, Cincinnati (12-1), BYU (11-2), and Central Michigan (12-2) win this year’s Rodney Dangerfield award. None cracked the top 25 after great 2009 records and top 25 finishes in both the Coaches’ and AP polls. Particularly surprising are Cincinnati, who was ranked No. 8/9 and BYU, who was ranked No. 12 in the final 2009 polls. You would think the coaches would be used to voting for these teams by now. BYU has been ranked in every final poll since 2006 and Cincinnati since 2007.

Let’s take a look at the coaches themselves:

The American Football Coaches Association (AFCA) has continued the trend of making large scale voter changes. Of course, this might also have to do with a larger number of coaches leaving their schools. From 2007 to 2008, there were only 14 voter changes made. From 2008 to 2009, the number doubled to 28 (and two less voters). 2009 to 2010 has 27 changes. Click the links to see the full lists of changes.

Here is the breakdown of how many voters each conference gets:

Number of Coaches with Votes:

The only change from 2009 is that the MAC lost one vote and the Mountain West gained a vote. Even the independents stayed the same with Navy and Notre Dame. Like 2009, the distribution is far more even than 2008 and 2007, where the Big Ten was given a marked advantage. They still have a very small advantage since they are the only league with 11 teams, but still get the same number of votes as leagues with 12 teams. Like 2009, this can be rationalized and simply a matter of rounding up. However, removing a vote from the MAC, the largest conference with 13 teams, sounds as unbalanced as Mike Leach at a unicycle convention.

For fun, let’s take into account the conference changes that have been officially announced. Teams that are switching conferences as early as 2011 might have a new-found allegiance to their new conference. If so, this is how the numbers shake out in this transition year:

Number of Coaches with Votes Considering Conference Realignment:

The losers in this scenario are the Big 12 and the WAC. Boise State will be moving to the Mountain West, which is a loss of a vote for the WAC and a gain for the Mountain West. However, Utah will be taking its vote to the Pac-10, so it is a wash for the Mountain West.

One winner is the Pac-10 who picks up a vote with Utah, which rightfully puts them on par with other 12-team leagues. (Colorado’s Dan Hawkins doesn’t get a vote this year.) The other winner is the Big Ten. With Nebraska bolting the Big 12 for the Big 10 (and with no love lost for its former conference), it is certainly possible that Bo Pelini might side with the Big 10 when push comes to shove. So the biggest winner is the Big Ten who once again has a potential advantage over every other league. A soon-to-be 12 team league potentially gets seven coaches voting in its favor.

That leaves the Big 12 as the biggest theoretical loser as the only current 12 team league with potentially only five coaches voting.

This is one aspect of conference realignment that most people haven’t thought about. Realignment also affects votes in the Coaches’ Poll, which is a major part of the BCS formula. I’m sure the AFCA will do its best to balance out the numbers once the realignment dust settles. However, if the Big 12 manages to carry on with only 10 teams, it will not only suffer potential losses in total revenue and TV market share, they will also be relegated to only 5 votes in the Coaches’ Poll, just like the other leagues with 10 teams (i.e. the current Pac-10.)

Finally, for all you conference loyalists out there, here is the breakdown of how each conference (in its current incarnation) fared in the voting:

Number of Teams in the Preseason Top 25:

There is so much more we could discuss if only we had access to the coaches’ ballots every week like the AP Poll. Unfortunately, the AFCA hasn’t changed that policy. If you want to see public ballots every week, be sure to sign the Free the Ballots Petition. In the meantime, we’ll have to wait until August 21^st for the AP Ballots to see what goes on in the minds of professional voters.

2010 USA Today Coaches' Poll Released (posted 8/6/10)

The 2010 Preseason USA Today Coaches' Poll has been released.  See Pollstalker's BCS + AP COMPILED '10 report for the results.  Breakdown of the poll and the coaching changes coming soon.

Preseason Poll Release Dates (posted 7/20/10)

The release dates for the 2010 preseason USA Today Coaches' Poll and AP Poll have been obtained by Pollspeak:

Neither poll plans any changes in voter guidelines or process for the 2010 season.  Of course, that means no public coaches' ballots on a weekly basis.  To express your desire to see public ballots, please sign the PETITION.

Coaches Won't Vote For USC This Year (posted 7/8/10)

The USA Today is reporting that the University of Southern California will not be allowed on ballots in the 2010 USA Today Coaches Poll.   This is consistent with the American Football Coaches Association's policy of withholding votes for programs under "major NCAA sanctions."  In the case of USC, that includes a two-year bowl ban and a loss of thirty scholarships over three years.  It is unknown how long the ban will last, but judging by the criteria, it will likely also be enforced in 2011.

AFCA Executive Director, Grant Teaff released the following statement:

"American Football Coaches Association policy dictates that AFCA members who serve on board of voters to determine national ranking shall not vote on any institution on major probation.

"Penalties imposed by the NCAA, or a representative conference, are classified as 'major' if the penalties include loss of post-season bowl participation and/or television appearances, and/or loss of 20 percent or more of grants in aid.

"The NCAA has informed us that the University of Southern California formally has accepted a penalty that includes loss of post-season bowl participation for the upcoming 2010-11 season.

"We have informed the University of Southern California Athletic Director Mike Garrett, USC Head Coach Lane Kiffin, Pac-10 Commissioner Larry Scott and BCS Executive Director Bill Hancock of our policy."