POLLSPEAK'S PICK: Bad Voter of Week 5 -- Pete DiPrimio   (posted 9/24/08)

Pete DiPrimio received ZERO bad votes from our readers (and zero good votes), Pollstalker didn't call out his week 5 ballot as extreme, and he was even named Good Voter of Week 13 in 2007.  In fact he has ZERO extreme votes on his ballot and only two near-extreme.  This is a guy who flew completely under the radar this week...how can Pollspeak name him Bad Voter of Week 5?

Well, it's still early enough in the year that its hard to blame people for extreme votes.  Look at Scott Wolf's ballot, arguably this week's most extreme ballot, and a very close second for our pick.  Wolf ranked USC lowest at #3, which is odd considering how they've been dominating compared to Georgia and Florida, but it isn't unthinkable since all three are playing very well along with (at least) five other teams.  The biggest thing that caught our eye was that Wolf voted Kansas over USF, even though they played recently and USF won.

But using that reasoning, DiPrimio is the only voter this week who ranked two losers of head-to-head match ups over the winners.  Oregon #20 over Boise State #25 and Kansas #15 over USF #16.  So this is what separated him from the pack for us this week.  We are actually surprised because we specifically called out DiPrimio in '07 for doing a good job of ranking winners higher.

Keep in mind that, unlike last year, this is the "Bad Voter" of the week and not the "Worst Voter" of the week.   So cut us some slack.  Also, this once again demonstrates the point that "extreme" and "bad" are not synonymous.  Extreme is just one way of finding bias or ignorance, but it isn't the only way.

PEOPLE'S PICK: Bad Voter of Week 5 -- Maurice Patton   (posted 9/24/08)

Name	Good Votes	Bad Votes	Net Bad Votes
Maurice Patton	81	742	661

In past weeks, Maurice Patton might have been Pollspeak's Pick for Bad Voter as well.  However, this week he'll have to settle for the People's Pick.  In weeks two and three, he ranked three losers over the winners of head to head matchups.  However, this week he only had one:  Oregon #13 over Boise State Unranked.  That is a huge discrepancy though (the largest of the voters).

He blew away the competition in the unpopular vote with 661 net votes, but this is mostly do to his ranking of Alabama lowest in the country at #17.  Fans, particularly Alabama fans, are always good at voicing their displeasure, but that's also the reason why we have a People's Pick and a Pollspeak's Pick.

Good Voter of Week 5 -- Kirk Herbstreit   (posted 9/24/08)

Name	Good Votes	Bad Votes	Net Good Votes
Kirk Herbstreit	189	65	124

Kirk Herbstreit received the most net good votes this week, and Pollspeak has no significant issues with his ballot.  So he is this week's unanimous pick for Good Voter.

While Herbstreit is our winner, it was actually Jon Wilner who received the most good votes with 350.  However, Wilner also received 551 bad votes, which put him in third place in the unpopular vote.

Herbstreit's only extreme vote was ranking Miami highest alone at #16, which is likely where he picked up most of his good votes.  Wilner on the other hand ranked Alabama #2 highest alone, which is certainly where he got many of his votes along with Boise State, USF and TCU.  He then proceeded to lose points by ranking Florida, Oklahoma, Texas and Wake Forest lowest...alone.  As always Wilner polarizes fans, but we were actually happy with how much respect he showed the non-BCS teams including:  Boise State #10, Utah #12, BYU #14, TCU #17 and East Carolina #23.

Quick Hits From Around the Polls (posted 9/23/08)

The widest range of rankings in the AP Poll this week is Ohio State, ranked everywhere from #8 to Unranked.  And the greatest disparity when comparing the BCS components to each other is Vanderbilt, ranked #4 by the Colley Matrix and Unranked (out of the top 50) by the Billingsley Report.  You can find some bigger ranges if you look beyond the top 50 (including Nebraska and UNLV), but we'll stick with the top 50 for Pollspeak's purposes.

On that topic, let’s take a look at the two traditional polls out this week, the AP Poll and the Coaches’ Poll, and see which teams they disagree most about:

Team	AP	Coaches
Alabama	8	11
Vanderbilt	21	25
Oregon	Unranked	22
East Carolina	23	Unranked

It’s no secret that the SEC is a media darling, which is likely why Alabama and Vanderbilt fare better in their poll compared to the more partisan Coaches’ poll, whose voters are chosen based on conference affiliation.  This might also explain the swapping of Oregon and East Carolina in the two polls.  Fans often accuse the media of having an east-coast bias.  It’s worth noting that Oregon and East Carolina are ranked “#26” in the AP and Coaches’ Polls respectively.

Now, let’s revisit a topic we brought up in a Pollspeak article:  “Non-BCS Teams Suffer from Preseason Bias”.  As you might expect from the title, we point out that teams outside the big six BCS conferences don’t get a fair shake in the pre-season polls.  The BCS conferences are the ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-10, and SEC.  The most important stats we listed are that non-BCS teams have never been ranked higher than #15 in the preseason during the BCS era.  This is despite the fact they have finished in the top 15 every year except 2001 (and Louisville was close, finishing #17 in the AP and #16 in the Coaches’ Poll).  Also, the voters always rank a non-BCS team higher in the final poll than it ranked any non-BCS team in the preseason poll – and it’s usually much higher.  We specifically pointed out that the following teams should be getting more respect in the preseason:  Boise State, BYU, Utah, and TCU. Let’s compare how they were ranked in the preseason and how they have fared so far:

Team	Preseason Ranking	Current Status
Boise State	Unranked	Ranked #19 (AP) and #20 (CP).  Currently 3-0.  Beat #17 Oregon 37-32 last week at Autzen Stadium.
BYU	#16 (AP), #17 (CP)	Ranked #11 in both polls.   Currently 4-0.  Beat Wyoming 44-0 last week and UCLA 59-0 the week before.
Utah	Unranked	Ranked #17 in both polls.  Currently 4-0.  Beat Air Force 30-23 last week and opened with a 25-23 victory at Michigan.
TCU	Unranked	Ranked #24 (AP) and #23 (CP).  Currently 4-0.  Beat SMU 41-7 last week and Stanford 31-14 the week before.

So the main point of the article still holds true.  Non-BCS teams have a longer road to travel to reach the rankings they earn in the final poll.  They are never given the benefit of the doubt, even when they have similar consistency and success to BCS teams ranked higher in the preseason poll.  All of these teams might not be highly ranked in the final poll, but voters would be wise to keep this information in mind next pre-season.

Also, a special shout out to AP Voters:  Maurice Patton, Bob Hammond, Pete DiPrimio, and Randy Rosetta who were the only voters this week to rank Oregon over Boise State after the Broncos defeated the Ducks 37 – 32 at Autzen Stadium.  While there may be other reasons for this, it would seem to conflict with common sense and at least three of the AP directives:

• "Base your vote on performance, not reputation or preseason speculation.

• Pay attention to head-to-head results and

• Don’t hesitate to make significant changes in your ballot from week to week. There’s no rule against jumping the 16th-ranked team over the eighth-ranked team, if No. 16 is coming off a big victory and No. 8 just lost 52-6 to a so-so team. "

Massey Ratings Added to BCS+AP Compiled Report  (posted 9/22/08)

Pollstalker now includes the Massey Ratings Top 50 in the BCS+AP Compiled '08 Report.  Massey is one of the six computer polls used by the BCS.  It has actually been published for a few weeks, but the top 50 was filled with so many FCS, Div. II and III teams that it wasn't very useful for comparison purposes.

This week, there are only three left, and they're relegated to bottom:  Cornell #43, Montana #49 and Muhlenberg #50.

Pollstalker Switches to Sagarin "ELO_CHESS" Rankings in Week 5  (posted 9/21/08)

Beginning with 'week 5' of the 2008 season (9/21/08), Pollstalker will use the Sagarin "ELO_CHESS" rankings instead of the standard Sagarin rankings.  The ELO_CHESS rankings are the ones the BCS uses, but are not how they are listed at the Sagarin sites. For example, if you look at the current Sagarin ratings on USATODAY.COM, Florida is ranked #2 and LSU #3.  However, in the ELO_CHESS column, LSU is #2 and Florida is #3.  In fact, about the only thing the two systems agree upon are that USC is #1 and Auburn is #14.

Any Sagarin rankings listed in Pollstalker prior to 'week 5' of 2008 (before 9/20/08) will be the standard Sagarin rankings.  Starting with 'week 5' and going forward, the ELO_CHESS rankings will be listed.  You can view the Sagarin rankings along with all the other BCS components by choosing the BCS+AP Compiled '08 Report from Pollstalker.  At some point in the future we may track both Sagarin methods just for historical records, but for now we'll stick with the one recognized by the BCS.